Two Last-Minute Second Period Goals Too Much for Maroon and Gold
State College, PA - The home team was once again jovial in Happy Valley. For Gopher fans, the last three games have been more like the Valley of the Shadow of Death.
Penn State once again outplayed, outmanned and, most importantly, outscored the Gophers, beating them 5-3 on the strength of a pair of goals in the final 71 seconds of the middle period. The win was the Nittany Lions' third straight over Minnesota in just the last 8 days, putting the Gophers on the brink of elimination in the Big Ten conference tournament and inching them ever closer away from the safety of the middle of the PairWise pack and towards the bubble.
Minnesota (19-16-2 Overall, 10-13-2 B1G) got a big performance from Casey Mittelstadt, who scored the game's opening goal (the first of his two on the night) on the powerplay at 11:13 of the first. Penn State (17-13-5, 10-10-5) responded at 15:39 on Cole Hults' PP tally to tie the game at 1-1.
The Gophers' Darian Romanko took a 5-minute major with 1:35 left in the first, putting Penn State on a 5-minute power play that flowed into the second. PSU's Nate Sucese scored toward the tail-end of that man-advantage, putting the Nittany Lions ahead at 2:35 of the second. Scott Reedy tied the game on a nice pass from behind the net from Rem Pitlick at 15:13, but Penn State struck twice with under two minutes left in the middle stanza, once on a soft bad-angle shot by Dennis Smirnov with 1:11 remaining in the second and again on a bad defensive play resulting in a two-on-one by Andrew Sturtz with just fifteen seconds left.
The goals were deflating, but the Gophers made things slightly more interesting before the end. Tyler Sheehy drew a five-minute major at 10:17 of the third for contact to the head (but was somehow also called for embellishment on the play), and Casey Mittelstadt scored his second of the game and 10th of the season with 5 minutes to go to pull Minnesota within one. The Gophers drew another powerplay on a nice Brent Gates rush just 33 seconds after the Mittelstadt goal, but the Minnesota power play, which had already scored twice on the night, regressed to its awful mean, and Penn State scored with Mat Robson pulled for an extra attacker to salt the game away at 5-3.
Robson drew the loss on the night, and for the second straight start against these Nittany Lions has looked human. It's hard to fault Robson for most of the goals tonight, but I'm sure he'd like to have the Smirnov one back. It will be interesting to see if Gopher coach Don Lucia goes with Eric Schierhorn, firmly ensconced in the doghouse but not a loser of three straight against this PSU squad.
Coming into the night, the Gophers were something like 100% to make the tournament by winning at least one game this weekend, and 97% to make it if they were swept again. Lots of other crazy things would need to happen in college hockey for this team to miss the tournament at this point, but it sure would be nice for the Gophers to play like it mattered and win a game against a team they should be better than.
Minnesota has a chance to even the series Saturday. The puck drops at 6PM Central time and can be seen on FSN+, streamed on BTN2Go, and heard on AM1130.
Go Gophers!
Showing posts with label Pairwise. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pairwise. Show all posts
Friday, March 2, 2018
Friday, January 12, 2018
Bad Team Loses to Worse Team
Gophers fall 5-3 at home to the 6th place team in the 7-team Big Ten Conference
Minneapolis, MN - Sometimes when you watch Gopher hockey, it's hard to imagine that they're ranked at all, let alone ranked in the top 10.
This paragraph was going to go at the end, but it deserved to be placed at the beginning: Right now, the Gophers are a bad team. They have no powerplay, they have no offensive spark, they seem to have little on-ice leadership. They returned an All-American on offense and have the best freshman in the country, but they sit 41st in total offense behind college-hockey juggernauts like Bentley and Bowling Green. They dearly miss Tommy Novak, who, despite all the other NHL draft picks littering the Gopher lineup, appears to be the only guy on the team that can actually make plays. They should be better.
Consistently inconsistent, the Minnesota Gophers (13-11-1 Overall, 4-8-1 B1G) had another head-scratcher of a night against the ineffective Michigan Wolverines (9-10-2, 4-7-2), giving up a goal 14 seconds into the game and struggling to find their footing throughout the rest of the contest, ultimately falling 5-3 with an empty netter.
Minneapolis, MN - Sometimes when you watch Gopher hockey, it's hard to imagine that they're ranked at all, let alone ranked in the top 10.
This paragraph was going to go at the end, but it deserved to be placed at the beginning: Right now, the Gophers are a bad team. They have no powerplay, they have no offensive spark, they seem to have little on-ice leadership. They returned an All-American on offense and have the best freshman in the country, but they sit 41st in total offense behind college-hockey juggernauts like Bentley and Bowling Green. They dearly miss Tommy Novak, who, despite all the other NHL draft picks littering the Gopher lineup, appears to be the only guy on the team that can actually make plays. They should be better.
Consistently inconsistent, the Minnesota Gophers (13-11-1 Overall, 4-8-1 B1G) had another head-scratcher of a night against the ineffective Michigan Wolverines (9-10-2, 4-7-2), giving up a goal 14 seconds into the game and struggling to find their footing throughout the rest of the contest, ultimately falling 5-3 with an empty netter.
Sunday, March 22, 2015
2015 NCAA Tournament Bracketology
By virtue of their B1G Conference Playoff title, the Minnesota Gophers will be playing in the NCAA Tournament as a #3 seed.
Now that all of the other conference tournament results are in, let's take a stab at predicting the brackets the NCAA Selection Committee will unveil tomorrow afternoon.
The field of 16 breaks down like this:
1 Seeds
Minnesota State (#1 Overall)
North Dakota
Boston University
Miami
2 Seeds
Denver
Minnesota-Duluth
Michigan Tech
Nebraska-Omaha
3 Seeds
Harvard
Minnesota
Boston College
St. Cloud State
4 Seeds
Yale
Quinnipiac
Providence
RIT
The first step of the Bracketology process is to place host teams in their own regionals.
North Dakota is placed in the Fargo regional as the only host team that made the tournament.
Next, starting with the #1 overall seed (Mankato), #1 seeds are placed in the regional closest to them - Mankato is placed in the South Bend regional, Boston University is placed in the Manchester regional, and Miami is placed in Providence (BU is about as close to Manchester as Providence, and this makes things easier down the line).
Now we place the remaining teams in their regionals based on ideal seed bands (1 vs 16 and 8 vs 9, 2 vs 15 and 7 vs 10, 3 vs 14 and 6 vs 11, 4 vs 13 and 5 vs 12):
When we do that, we get the following:
South Bend
Mankato vs RIT
Nebraska-Omaha vs Harvard
Fargo
North Dakota vs Providence
Michigan Tech vs Minnesota
Manchester
BU vs Quinnipiac
Minnesota-Duluth vs BC
Providence
Miami vs Yale
Denver vs St. Cloud State
Now, we're looking to eliminate first-round intra-conference matchups. We have only one in Providence with Denver playing St. Cloud. Because the NCHC has three #2 seeds, the only way to avoid this matchup is to swap Minnesota and St. Cloud State. Now we're left with:
South Bend
Mankato vs RIT
Nebraska-Omaha vs Harvard
Fargo
North Dakota vs Providence
Michigan Tech vs St. Cloud State
Manchester
BU vs Quinnipiac
Minnesota-Duluth vs BC
Providence
Miami vs Yale
Denver vs Minnesota
Now, what can we do to maximize attendance at these sites? One thing we can do is swap Minnesota and Harvard, to bring the Crimson out East and the Gophers back West.
South Bend
Mankato vs RIT
Nebraska-Omaha vs Minnesota
Fargo
North Dakota vs Providence
Michigan Tech vs St. Cloud State
Manchester
BU vs Quinnipiac
Minnesota-Duluth vs BC
Providence
Miami vs Yale
Denver vs Harvard
You'd like to get Providence in Providence, so let's swap Yale, Quinnipiac and Providence to try and preserve bracket integrity as best we can. So now we've got:
South Bend
Mankato vs RIT
Nebraska-Omaha vs Minnesota
Fargo
North Dakota vs Quinnipiac
Michigan Tech vs St. Cloud State
Manchester
BU vs Yale
Minnesota-Duluth vs BC
Providence
Miami vs Providence
Denver vs Harvard
Okay. All four regionals look pretty good from an attendance perspective here. South Bend is probably the weakest of the four, but Minnesota usually travels pretty well and Mankato isn't that far either. We'd love to get Miami to South Bend, and the committee in the past has said that "a flight is a flight" and sent a higher-ranked team farther in favor of a bus ride for a lower team. However, the committee also likes to keep the 1 vs 16 matchup intact, and moving Mankato to Providence would screw up our whole "Providence in Providence" idea.
So, the question is: does the committee care more about preserving the 1/16 match up, or about attendance? If they care about attendance more I could see Mankato going to Providence, but in the past they've been sure to protect that 1/16 matchup so I can't see them changing that now. Here's my final bracket:
South Bend
Mankato vs RIT
Nebraska-Omaha vs Minnesota
Fargo
North Dakota vs Quinnipiac
Michigan Tech vs St. Cloud State
Manchester
BU vs Yale
Minnesota-Duluth vs BC
Providence
Miami vs Providence
Denver vs Harvard
Now that all of the other conference tournament results are in, let's take a stab at predicting the brackets the NCAA Selection Committee will unveil tomorrow afternoon.
The field of 16 breaks down like this:
1 Seeds
Minnesota State (#1 Overall)
North Dakota
Boston University
Miami
2 Seeds
Denver
Minnesota-Duluth
Michigan Tech
Nebraska-Omaha
3 Seeds
Harvard
Minnesota
Boston College
St. Cloud State
4 Seeds
Yale
Quinnipiac
Providence
RIT
The first step of the Bracketology process is to place host teams in their own regionals.
North Dakota is placed in the Fargo regional as the only host team that made the tournament.
Next, starting with the #1 overall seed (Mankato), #1 seeds are placed in the regional closest to them - Mankato is placed in the South Bend regional, Boston University is placed in the Manchester regional, and Miami is placed in Providence (BU is about as close to Manchester as Providence, and this makes things easier down the line).
Now we place the remaining teams in their regionals based on ideal seed bands (1 vs 16 and 8 vs 9, 2 vs 15 and 7 vs 10, 3 vs 14 and 6 vs 11, 4 vs 13 and 5 vs 12):
When we do that, we get the following:
South Bend
Mankato vs RIT
Nebraska-Omaha vs Harvard
Fargo
North Dakota vs Providence
Michigan Tech vs Minnesota
Manchester
BU vs Quinnipiac
Minnesota-Duluth vs BC
Providence
Miami vs Yale
Denver vs St. Cloud State
Now, we're looking to eliminate first-round intra-conference matchups. We have only one in Providence with Denver playing St. Cloud. Because the NCHC has three #2 seeds, the only way to avoid this matchup is to swap Minnesota and St. Cloud State. Now we're left with:
South Bend
Mankato vs RIT
Nebraska-Omaha vs Harvard
Fargo
North Dakota vs Providence
Michigan Tech vs St. Cloud State
Manchester
BU vs Quinnipiac
Minnesota-Duluth vs BC
Providence
Miami vs Yale
Denver vs Minnesota
Now, what can we do to maximize attendance at these sites? One thing we can do is swap Minnesota and Harvard, to bring the Crimson out East and the Gophers back West.
South Bend
Mankato vs RIT
Nebraska-Omaha vs Minnesota
Fargo
North Dakota vs Providence
Michigan Tech vs St. Cloud State
Manchester
BU vs Quinnipiac
Minnesota-Duluth vs BC
Providence
Miami vs Yale
Denver vs Harvard
You'd like to get Providence in Providence, so let's swap Yale, Quinnipiac and Providence to try and preserve bracket integrity as best we can. So now we've got:
South Bend
Mankato vs RIT
Nebraska-Omaha vs Minnesota
Fargo
North Dakota vs Quinnipiac
Michigan Tech vs St. Cloud State
Manchester
BU vs Yale
Minnesota-Duluth vs BC
Providence
Miami vs Providence
Denver vs Harvard
Okay. All four regionals look pretty good from an attendance perspective here. South Bend is probably the weakest of the four, but Minnesota usually travels pretty well and Mankato isn't that far either. We'd love to get Miami to South Bend, and the committee in the past has said that "a flight is a flight" and sent a higher-ranked team farther in favor of a bus ride for a lower team. However, the committee also likes to keep the 1 vs 16 matchup intact, and moving Mankato to Providence would screw up our whole "Providence in Providence" idea.
So, the question is: does the committee care more about preserving the 1/16 match up, or about attendance? If they care about attendance more I could see Mankato going to Providence, but in the past they've been sure to protect that 1/16 matchup so I can't see them changing that now. Here's my final bracket:
South Bend
Mankato vs RIT
Nebraska-Omaha vs Minnesota
Fargo
North Dakota vs Quinnipiac
Michigan Tech vs St. Cloud State
Manchester
BU vs Yale
Minnesota-Duluth vs BC
Providence
Miami vs Providence
Denver vs Harvard
Friday, March 20, 2015
Gopher Hockey PairWise Update - What I Believe: Friday Night Edition
Here is what I believe when it comes to the Gophers and the NCAA Tournament:
Minnesota can only miss the tournament if the following occurs-
Minnesota can only miss the tournament if the following occurs-
- Michigan beats Minnesota in the B1G, AND
- Colgate beats Harvard in the ECAC, AND
- UMass-Lowell beats BU in HE, AND
- Miami beats SCSU in the NCHC, AND
- Michigan Tech beats Mankato in the WCHA, AND
- North Dakota beats Denver in the NCHC 3rd Place Game
Any other result in any other game and the Gophers are in the NCAA Tournament. If each outcome is a 50/50 probability and we take a Minnesota loss as an assumption, there is a 3.125% chance that this scenario will occur.
A win tomorrow night against Michigan would likely mean a #9 or #10 overall seed, whereas a loss will probably net Minnesota a #13 or #14 seed.
NCAA Tournament What If? Gophers Win Today, Lose Tomorrow
The Gophers can still make the NCAA Tournament without winning the B1G Conference Playoff this weekend, but it's going to take some help.
According to the scenarios I've run, there are five other things around the country this weekend that can severely harm Minnesota's chances of making the big dance. They are:
According to the scenarios I've run, there are five other things around the country this weekend that can severely harm Minnesota's chances of making the big dance. They are:
- Boston University not winning the Hockey East postseason tournament
- Quinnipiac not winning the ECAC postseason tournament
- St. Cloud State winning at least one game in the NCHC tournament
- Bowling Green winning at least one game in the WCHA tournament
- Minnesota State or Michigan Tech not winning the WCHA tournament
Assuming Minnesota takes care of business against Ohio State today, they've still got a decent shot of making the tourney even if they lose to Michigan or MSU in Saturday's championship game. Based on the scenario-building I've done, it looks to me like a win tonight will get the Gophers into the NCAA tournament so long as no more than two of the above bad results take place.
As a Gopher fan, these are the only results you need to pay attention to this weekend (other than the Gophers, of course).
We'll go into why each of these results harm the Gophers in more detail below:
Monday, March 16, 2015
Who to Root For: A Conference Tournament Viewing Guide for Gopher Fans
The Gophers won the B1G regular season title on Saturday night, but that doesn't mean they're a lock to make the NCAA tournament.
Teams that make the Big Dance are determined by the PairWise Rankings, a mathematical formula that simulates the actions the NCAA Selection Committee takes to decide which teams are in and which teams are out.
16 teams make the NCAA Tournament. Currently, Minnesota ranks 13th in the PWR, but next weekend's results could dramatically shape the Gophers' chances of punching their tickets to the Tourney. The only way they're guaranteed to make the NCAA Tournament is by winning the B1G Conference tourney and securing the conference's auto-bid, but each other conference has an auto-bid as well. Any lower-ranked teams that win their conference tournament effectively take a spot away from the bottom of the bubble, drastically limiting the Gophers' scenarios to make the Tournament if they are not the B1G tournament champion.
After looking at many scenarios and crunching some numbers, here's who you should be rooting for in each conference's championship tournament this upcoming weekend:
Atlantic Hockey - (1) Robert Morris vs. (4) Mercyhurst, (2) Canisius vs. (3) RIT. It honestly doesn't matter who wins this one. The conference is only going to get one team into the tournament, whichever team wins their playoff this weekend. The best team in AH is Robert Morris, a team that made the tourney last year and lost to Minnesota in the first round. I'd like to see them win as they have the best chance out of any team in AH to give a #1 seed a run.
B1G - (3) Michigan vs. (6) Wisconsin, (4) Penn State vs. (5) Ohio State, (1) Minnesota vs. 4/5 Winner, (2) Michigan State vs 3/6 Winner. We want Minnesota to win, obviously. If not, then it doesn't really matter who wins, although the Gophers' chances are better if they lose in the championship game than in the semifinal.
ECAC - (1) Quinnipiac vs. (4) Harvard, (2) St. Lawrence vs. (3) Colgate. For the Gophers to make it, we need as many teams "already in" the tournament to win their conference championships as possible. In the ECAC, the highest ranked team is Quinnipiac at T10th. Harvard and Colgate are still alive at 15th and 16th respectively, as is St. Lawrence at T20th. We'd like to see Quinnipiac win this one. If not Q, then Harvard would be the next best bet, but things start to get tight for Minnesota if more than one or two non-tourney teams win their conferences, since if the Gophers don't have the B1G auto-bid that means that another B1G team is already in the tournament, already pushing the bubble down to 14 (B1G team and AH team taking away #15 and #16 spot).
Hockey East - (1) Boston University vs. (4) New Hampshire, (2) UMass-Lowell vs. (3) Vermont. This is another conference tourney where only one team is guaranteed to make the NCAAs - BU. Lowell currently sits T16th and outside the bubble, while Vermont is 19th right now. We want Boston University to take the tournament here.
NCHC - (1) North Dakota vs. (4) St. Cloud State, (2) Miami vs. (3) Denver. Here's one where we really only have one team to root against, and it's not the team you're thinking. North Dakota, Miami and Denver are safely in the NCAA Tournament already. The NCHC has a third place game in their Frozen Faceoff tournament, which means that the losing teams of the first round game have a chance to win another game to bolster their RPI scores. We want St. Cloud State to lose as many games as possible here. St. Cloud's RPI is a bit higher than the Gophers' RPI is right now, despite the fact that they are only one game over .500 at 18-17-1. Just one St. Cloud win on the weekend would be enough to boost their RPI ahead of Minnesota's and put them safely in the tournament. Two losses would send them below Minnesota and onto the bubble. So, Gopher fans should root for Miami, Denver or (shudder) North Dakota to win the NCHC, but more importantly root against St. Cloud in all of their games.
WCHA - (1) Minnesota State vs. (4) Ferris State, (2) Michigan Tech vs. (3) Bowling Green. This one is easy. There are two teams remaining in the WCHA that are already "in" - Minnesota State and Michigan Tech. Gopher fans should root for Mankato and Michigan Tech to win their games and square off in the Final Five (?) title game.
Teams that make the Big Dance are determined by the PairWise Rankings, a mathematical formula that simulates the actions the NCAA Selection Committee takes to decide which teams are in and which teams are out.
16 teams make the NCAA Tournament. Currently, Minnesota ranks 13th in the PWR, but next weekend's results could dramatically shape the Gophers' chances of punching their tickets to the Tourney. The only way they're guaranteed to make the NCAA Tournament is by winning the B1G Conference tourney and securing the conference's auto-bid, but each other conference has an auto-bid as well. Any lower-ranked teams that win their conference tournament effectively take a spot away from the bottom of the bubble, drastically limiting the Gophers' scenarios to make the Tournament if they are not the B1G tournament champion.
After looking at many scenarios and crunching some numbers, here's who you should be rooting for in each conference's championship tournament this upcoming weekend:
Atlantic Hockey - (1) Robert Morris vs. (4) Mercyhurst, (2) Canisius vs. (3) RIT. It honestly doesn't matter who wins this one. The conference is only going to get one team into the tournament, whichever team wins their playoff this weekend. The best team in AH is Robert Morris, a team that made the tourney last year and lost to Minnesota in the first round. I'd like to see them win as they have the best chance out of any team in AH to give a #1 seed a run.
B1G - (3) Michigan vs. (6) Wisconsin, (4) Penn State vs. (5) Ohio State, (1) Minnesota vs. 4/5 Winner, (2) Michigan State vs 3/6 Winner. We want Minnesota to win, obviously. If not, then it doesn't really matter who wins, although the Gophers' chances are better if they lose in the championship game than in the semifinal.
ECAC - (1) Quinnipiac vs. (4) Harvard, (2) St. Lawrence vs. (3) Colgate. For the Gophers to make it, we need as many teams "already in" the tournament to win their conference championships as possible. In the ECAC, the highest ranked team is Quinnipiac at T10th. Harvard and Colgate are still alive at 15th and 16th respectively, as is St. Lawrence at T20th. We'd like to see Quinnipiac win this one. If not Q, then Harvard would be the next best bet, but things start to get tight for Minnesota if more than one or two non-tourney teams win their conferences, since if the Gophers don't have the B1G auto-bid that means that another B1G team is already in the tournament, already pushing the bubble down to 14 (B1G team and AH team taking away #15 and #16 spot).
Hockey East - (1) Boston University vs. (4) New Hampshire, (2) UMass-Lowell vs. (3) Vermont. This is another conference tourney where only one team is guaranteed to make the NCAAs - BU. Lowell currently sits T16th and outside the bubble, while Vermont is 19th right now. We want Boston University to take the tournament here.
NCHC - (1) North Dakota vs. (4) St. Cloud State, (2) Miami vs. (3) Denver. Here's one where we really only have one team to root against, and it's not the team you're thinking. North Dakota, Miami and Denver are safely in the NCAA Tournament already. The NCHC has a third place game in their Frozen Faceoff tournament, which means that the losing teams of the first round game have a chance to win another game to bolster their RPI scores. We want St. Cloud State to lose as many games as possible here. St. Cloud's RPI is a bit higher than the Gophers' RPI is right now, despite the fact that they are only one game over .500 at 18-17-1. Just one St. Cloud win on the weekend would be enough to boost their RPI ahead of Minnesota's and put them safely in the tournament. Two losses would send them below Minnesota and onto the bubble. So, Gopher fans should root for Miami, Denver or (shudder) North Dakota to win the NCHC, but more importantly root against St. Cloud in all of their games.
WCHA - (1) Minnesota State vs. (4) Ferris State, (2) Michigan Tech vs. (3) Bowling Green. This one is easy. There are two teams remaining in the WCHA that are already "in" - Minnesota State and Michigan Tech. Gopher fans should root for Mankato and Michigan Tech to win their games and square off in the Final Five (?) title game.
Sunday, March 8, 2015
Gopher Hockey: Two Options to Make the NCAA Tournament
With the season winding down and the Gophers faltering left and right, the team has played itself into a position where there are only two paths left to making the NCAA Tournament.
1) Sweep Penn State next weekend and win the semifinal game of the B1G Tournament, but lose in the championship game
2) Win the B1G championship
Both options are still attainable, although this hockey team has shown it can lose to anyone.
The Gophers need 3 more wins to remain on the safe side of the NCAA Tournament bubble and really can't afford more than one loss if they want to grab an at-large bid into the tourney. This means the only loss they can stomach is the one in the B1G Championship game.
Assuming they sweep Penn State, the Gophers will be at worst the #2 seed heading into the conference tournament, which would net them a first-round bye. A win in the semifinal game and a loss in the final should be enough to get the Gophers something like the #13 or #14 seed and squeak into the tourney.
Of course, winning the B1G postseason tournament would give Minnesota the conference auto-bid, which is the fail-safe for the team assuming they do not start putting together a run of wins.
It is possible that the team could get into the tournament in another way - splitting next weekend and winning twice in the B1G tournament would put them 3-2 the rest of the way, which just might be enough to eke out one of the last at-large bids to the tournament. This scenario would probably require so many other things to go Minnesota's way that it's not that realistic.
The Gophers face Penn State next weekend for the last series of the regular season. Minnesota sits at 33 points in the conference, tied with Michigan and one point behind Michigan State. The Spartans and Wolverines play a home-and-home series against each other next weekend. These two series (MN/PSU and UM/MSU) will decide the B1G regular season title as well as the seedings for the post-season tournament.
1) Sweep Penn State next weekend and win the semifinal game of the B1G Tournament, but lose in the championship game
2) Win the B1G championship
Both options are still attainable, although this hockey team has shown it can lose to anyone.
The Gophers need 3 more wins to remain on the safe side of the NCAA Tournament bubble and really can't afford more than one loss if they want to grab an at-large bid into the tourney. This means the only loss they can stomach is the one in the B1G Championship game.
Assuming they sweep Penn State, the Gophers will be at worst the #2 seed heading into the conference tournament, which would net them a first-round bye. A win in the semifinal game and a loss in the final should be enough to get the Gophers something like the #13 or #14 seed and squeak into the tourney.
Of course, winning the B1G postseason tournament would give Minnesota the conference auto-bid, which is the fail-safe for the team assuming they do not start putting together a run of wins.
It is possible that the team could get into the tournament in another way - splitting next weekend and winning twice in the B1G tournament would put them 3-2 the rest of the way, which just might be enough to eke out one of the last at-large bids to the tournament. This scenario would probably require so many other things to go Minnesota's way that it's not that realistic.
The Gophers face Penn State next weekend for the last series of the regular season. Minnesota sits at 33 points in the conference, tied with Michigan and one point behind Michigan State. The Spartans and Wolverines play a home-and-home series against each other next weekend. These two series (MN/PSU and UM/MSU) will decide the B1G regular season title as well as the seedings for the post-season tournament.
Thursday, February 26, 2015
Gopher Hockey NCAA Tournament Magic Number: 5ish
The Pairwise rankings are a tough nut to crack, but the latest simulations from Jim Dahl over at College Hockey Ranked seem to say that the Gophers are pretty safe to make the NCAA tournament field if they can win five more games before the NCAA field is announced.
Sunday, March 23, 2014
Saturday Night / Sunday Morning Bracketology: UND Made It (Barely)
Now that the dust has settled, let me tell you who is "in" and who is "out" of the NCAA Tournament.
As you remember, there were just a few teams left fighting for the remaining spots in the 16-team field. North Dakota needed a win and some help in order to reach the tournament, and they got just that, beating Western Michigan 5-0 in the NCHC 3rd Place Game before sweating out a UMass-Lowell triumph over UNH and a thrilling 5-4 overtime win for Wisconsin. The UW and UML wins gave North Dakota the last At Large bid.
Minnesota State was another team fighting for a spot, and they secured it by winning the WCHA Championship against Ferris State by a 4-1 score.
Denver bested Miami (OH) 4-3 to claim the NCHC's autobid and reach the tournament. Same for Robert Morris, who beat Canisius 7-4 to win the Atlantic Hockey championship.
So, the NCAA Tournament field is set:
So, let's go through the bracketology here. First order of business, place host teams in their own regionals. Minnesota is the only host team that made the field, so they are placed in St. Paul. Next, place the remaining 1-band seeds (teams 1-4) starting with the highest-ranked team, as close to home as possible. BC gets placed in Worcester, Union in Bridgeport, Wisconsin in Cincinnati.
Now we place the teams so that the seedings follow bracket integrity: the #1 overall seed should have #s 8, 9, and 16 in their region; #2 overall should have 7, 10, 15; #3 should have 6, 11, 14; and the #4 seed's region should contain 5, 12, and 13.
Therefore, our "preliminary" brackets look like this:
As you remember, there were just a few teams left fighting for the remaining spots in the 16-team field. North Dakota needed a win and some help in order to reach the tournament, and they got just that, beating Western Michigan 5-0 in the NCHC 3rd Place Game before sweating out a UMass-Lowell triumph over UNH and a thrilling 5-4 overtime win for Wisconsin. The UW and UML wins gave North Dakota the last At Large bid.
Minnesota State was another team fighting for a spot, and they secured it by winning the WCHA Championship against Ferris State by a 4-1 score.
Denver bested Miami (OH) 4-3 to claim the NCHC's autobid and reach the tournament. Same for Robert Morris, who beat Canisius 7-4 to win the Atlantic Hockey championship.
So, the NCAA Tournament field is set:
1 Minnesota
2 BC
3 Union
4 Wisconsin
5 Ferris State
6 Quinnipiac
7 UMass-Lowell
8 Notre Dame
9 St. Cloud State
10 Minnesota State
11 Providence
12 Colgate
13 Vermont
14 North Dakota
15 Denver
16 Robert Morris
So, let's go through the bracketology here. First order of business, place host teams in their own regionals. Minnesota is the only host team that made the field, so they are placed in St. Paul. Next, place the remaining 1-band seeds (teams 1-4) starting with the highest-ranked team, as close to home as possible. BC gets placed in Worcester, Union in Bridgeport, Wisconsin in Cincinnati.
Now we place the teams so that the seedings follow bracket integrity: the #1 overall seed should have #s 8, 9, and 16 in their region; #2 overall should have 7, 10, 15; #3 should have 6, 11, 14; and the #4 seed's region should contain 5, 12, and 13.
Therefore, our "preliminary" brackets look like this:
St. Paul
1 Minnesota vs 16 Robert Morris
8 Notre Dame vs 9 St. Cloud State
Worcester
2 BC vs 15 Denver
7 UMass-Lowell vs 10 Minnesota State
Bridgeport
3 Union vs 14 North Dakota
6 Quinnipiac vs 11 Providence
Cincinnati
4 Wisconsin vs 13 Vermont
5 Ferris State vs 12 Colgate
At this point, we look to see if we have any first round interconference matchups - those need to be avoided as well as possible. Luckily, though, there are none.
What about attendance? Can we swap any teams around to help out attendance? One easy move would be to swap North Dakota with Vermont. We'd love to swap Minnesota State with Colgate, but that would create an all-WCHA first round matchup with Ferris State so we can't do that.
St. Paul
1 Minnesota vs 16 Robert Morris
8 Notre Dame vs 9 St. Cloud State
Worcester
2 BC vs 15 Denver
7 UMass-Lowell vs 10 Minnesota State
Bridgeport
3 Union vs 13 Vermont
6 Quinnipiac vs 11 Providence
Cincinnati
4 Wisconsin vs 14 North Dakota
5 Ferris State vs 12 Colgate
This bracket looks pretty good. This is the same thing that USCHO's Jayson Moy came up with tonight. I could foresee one more potential change, though: Denver to St. Paul and Robert Morris to Worcester. The committee has usually tried to "protect the #1 overall seed" by making sure they play the #16 overall seed, but in this case the #15 and #16 seeds are both autobid teams from outside the top 16 in the PairWise Rankings. I could see the committee maybe thinking that because both Denver and Robert Morris came from outside the top 16 that they could tweak those matchups for attendance purposes as well. I still think the above brackets are the ones we'll end up with, but if it's anything different than the above, I have to wager the only change will be DU to St. Paul and Robert Morris to Worcester.
Saturday, March 22, 2014
Saturday Morning PWR Roundup: Who's In, Who's Out, and Who Has a Chance
Things are starting to solidify in the PairWise Rankings (PWR) as the season winds down.
As a reminder, the PWR is the mathematical formula which picks the NCAA Tournament field in college hockey.
Here's the way it looks to me:
The following 13 teams are "locks" (as far as I can tell) to make the 16-team NCAA Tournament field:
There are three spots remaining, and there are three autobids still out there to be claimed by:
Ohio State, if they win the B1G. If they do not win tonight, they are out.
New Hampshire, if they win HE. If they do not win tonight, their season is also done.
Minnesota State, if they win the WCHA. If they do not win, they've still got a pretty good chance of earning an At Large bid (explained below).
Unless all three of the above teams win tonight, there will still be at least one more At Large bid to be determined. Things are still fluid with games left to be played, but I think these teams still have a chance to make it, in order of likelihood:
Vermont - they need one of Mankato, Ohio State or New Hampshire to lose tonight to squeak in. If all three of those teams win, it looks like they'll be the last team out.
Mankato - they are in with a win, but if they lose they'll need at least one of Ohio State or New Hampshire to lose tonight to get in with the last bid.
North Dakota - they need to win today in the NCHC third place game, and then need Ohio State and New Hampshire to lose.
Michigan - they need a North Dakota tie or loss in the NCHC third place game, and they need Ohio State and New Hampshire to lose.
That looks like all the teams left standing. Here's what some of the seeds look like:
Minnesota is guaranteed the #1 overall seed. They will be at the St. Paul regional and should play the #16 overall seed, which this year will be the winner of the Atlantic Hockey autobid - that's the winner of Canisius / Robert Morris tonight.
BC is almost guaranteed the #2 overall seed (I was able to find one scenario where Union jumps them into the #2). They will be in the Worcester regional and SHOULD play the #15 overall seed, unless that team is Miami (because Miami is the "host school" at the Cincinnati regional, they must be slotted there if they make the tournament) or New Hampshire / Vermont (those teams play in Hockey East together, and the committee avoids first round inter-conference matchups where possible). I think it's most likely that BC matches up against Denver or Ohio State if either of them wins tonight, and if neither does they'll face North Dakota, Michigan or Mankato
Union is guaranteed the #3 overall seed. They will be in the Bridgeport regional and should play the #14 overall seed, which will likely be New Hampshire or Ohio State (if they win their tourneys), and if not then probably Vermont, Michigan or North Dakota.
The #4 and #5 overall seeds (the #4 being the last #1 band seed available) will likely go to Ferris State and Wisconsin. Ferris State is guaranteed the #4 seed with a win tonight or a Wisconsin loss. Whomever it is, this seed will play at the Cincinnati regional, and will play Miami (OH) if they win tonight, and if not they'll play whichever #4 band seed is left standing - my guess is Mankato.
The #5 seed (Ferris State or Wisconsin) should also be in Cincinnati.
Quinnipiac should be the #6 seed and should get slotted in Bridgeport.
UMass-Lowell looks like the #7 seed and would go to Worcester.
Notre Dame is the #8 seed and will be in St. Paul. They'll face #9 seeded St. Cloud State in the first game.
(Note: these brackets are shaping out PERFECTLY for the committee so far. UW and Ferris in Cincinnati, Minnesota and SCSU in St. Paul, BC and Lowell in Worcester, Union and Quinnipiac in Bridgeport is just about how you'd draw it up attendance-wise).
The #10 seed looks like Colgate at this point. They would be slated to play Lowell in Worcester, all else equal. However, it looks like Mankato could move all the way up to the #10 spot with a win tonight, which would bump every other team down one spot. I think they'd probably send Mankato to Cincinnati anyways, unless Ferris State is the #2 seed there...
#11 looks like Providence to me. They'd head to Bridgeport to play Quinnipiac.
The rest is where it gets interesting, with those last teams fighting for their spots.
For what it's worth, here's how the brackets shape up so far:
Again, those question marks will be filled out by four of the following: Denver or Miami (whoever wins the NCHC), Ohio State, New Hampshire, Vermont, Mankato, North Dakota, Michigan.
Some interesting notes to consider: in the first round, BC cannot play UNH or Vermont, Ferris can't play Mankato, and Wisconsin can't play Michigan or Ohio State. If Miami wins they will have to play in Cincinnati as the host school there.
That's the way it looks to me! I'll try to throw together a final bracketology once the dust settles tonight.
NOTE: I have found some scenarios where the seeds don't 100% match what I wrote above. It looks like there are scenarios where there is a three-way tie for #5 overall between Wisconsin, Quinnipiac and Lowell that would change the seedings slightly. However, I think that the committee will likely set the brackets up like the above - the seeds are close enough and the attendance is near perfect.
As a reminder, the PWR is the mathematical formula which picks the NCAA Tournament field in college hockey.
Here's the way it looks to me:
The following 13 teams are "locks" (as far as I can tell) to make the 16-team NCAA Tournament field:
Minnesota
BC
Union
Ferris State
Wisconsin
Quinnipiac
UMass-Lowell
Notre Dame
St. Cloud State
Colgate
Providence
Denver / Miami (whoever wins the NCHC)
Robert Morris / Canisius (whoever wins AHA)
There are three spots remaining, and there are three autobids still out there to be claimed by:
Ohio State, if they win the B1G. If they do not win tonight, they are out.
New Hampshire, if they win HE. If they do not win tonight, their season is also done.
Minnesota State, if they win the WCHA. If they do not win, they've still got a pretty good chance of earning an At Large bid (explained below).
Unless all three of the above teams win tonight, there will still be at least one more At Large bid to be determined. Things are still fluid with games left to be played, but I think these teams still have a chance to make it, in order of likelihood:
Vermont - they need one of Mankato, Ohio State or New Hampshire to lose tonight to squeak in. If all three of those teams win, it looks like they'll be the last team out.
Mankato - they are in with a win, but if they lose they'll need at least one of Ohio State or New Hampshire to lose tonight to get in with the last bid.
North Dakota - they need to win today in the NCHC third place game, and then need Ohio State and New Hampshire to lose.
Michigan - they need a North Dakota tie or loss in the NCHC third place game, and they need Ohio State and New Hampshire to lose.
That looks like all the teams left standing. Here's what some of the seeds look like:
Minnesota is guaranteed the #1 overall seed. They will be at the St. Paul regional and should play the #16 overall seed, which this year will be the winner of the Atlantic Hockey autobid - that's the winner of Canisius / Robert Morris tonight.
BC is almost guaranteed the #2 overall seed (I was able to find one scenario where Union jumps them into the #2). They will be in the Worcester regional and SHOULD play the #15 overall seed, unless that team is Miami (because Miami is the "host school" at the Cincinnati regional, they must be slotted there if they make the tournament) or New Hampshire / Vermont (those teams play in Hockey East together, and the committee avoids first round inter-conference matchups where possible). I think it's most likely that BC matches up against Denver or Ohio State if either of them wins tonight, and if neither does they'll face North Dakota, Michigan or Mankato
Union is guaranteed the #3 overall seed. They will be in the Bridgeport regional and should play the #14 overall seed, which will likely be New Hampshire or Ohio State (if they win their tourneys), and if not then probably Vermont, Michigan or North Dakota.
The #4 and #5 overall seeds (the #4 being the last #1 band seed available) will likely go to Ferris State and Wisconsin. Ferris State is guaranteed the #4 seed with a win tonight or a Wisconsin loss. Whomever it is, this seed will play at the Cincinnati regional, and will play Miami (OH) if they win tonight, and if not they'll play whichever #4 band seed is left standing - my guess is Mankato.
The #5 seed (Ferris State or Wisconsin) should also be in Cincinnati.
Quinnipiac should be the #6 seed and should get slotted in Bridgeport.
UMass-Lowell looks like the #7 seed and would go to Worcester.
Notre Dame is the #8 seed and will be in St. Paul. They'll face #9 seeded St. Cloud State in the first game.
(Note: these brackets are shaping out PERFECTLY for the committee so far. UW and Ferris in Cincinnati, Minnesota and SCSU in St. Paul, BC and Lowell in Worcester, Union and Quinnipiac in Bridgeport is just about how you'd draw it up attendance-wise).
The #10 seed looks like Colgate at this point. They would be slated to play Lowell in Worcester, all else equal. However, it looks like Mankato could move all the way up to the #10 spot with a win tonight, which would bump every other team down one spot. I think they'd probably send Mankato to Cincinnati anyways, unless Ferris State is the #2 seed there...
#11 looks like Providence to me. They'd head to Bridgeport to play Quinnipiac.
The rest is where it gets interesting, with those last teams fighting for their spots.
For what it's worth, here's how the brackets shape up so far:
St. Paul
1 Minnesota vs 16 Robert Morris / Canisius (AHA Winner)
8 Notre Dame vs 9 St. Cloud State
Worcester
2 BC vs ??
7 Lowell vs 10 Colgate
Bridgeport
3 Union vs ??
6 Quinnipiac vs 11 Providence
Cincinnati
4 Ferris State / Wisconsin vs ??
5 Ferris State / Wisconsin vs ??
Again, those question marks will be filled out by four of the following: Denver or Miami (whoever wins the NCHC), Ohio State, New Hampshire, Vermont, Mankato, North Dakota, Michigan.
Some interesting notes to consider: in the first round, BC cannot play UNH or Vermont, Ferris can't play Mankato, and Wisconsin can't play Michigan or Ohio State. If Miami wins they will have to play in Cincinnati as the host school there.
That's the way it looks to me! I'll try to throw together a final bracketology once the dust settles tonight.
NOTE: I have found some scenarios where the seeds don't 100% match what I wrote above. It looks like there are scenarios where there is a three-way tie for #5 overall between Wisconsin, Quinnipiac and Lowell that would change the seedings slightly. However, I think that the committee will likely set the brackets up like the above - the seeds are close enough and the attendance is near perfect.
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