NCAA Hockey Tournament: Predicting the Games

The NCAA Tournament is finally here!

Four games Friday, six games Saturday and two games Sunday will determine who moves on to play in the Frozen Four.

Although the tournament was a tough one to pick for the bracketologists (including yours truly), everyone has an opinion and I'll use mine to try and pick the games.  This year is especially tough, as I think the top 15 teams have a chance to advance to the Frozen Four.  All game times listed are in Central time.

2015 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

By virtue of their B1G Conference Playoff title, the Minnesota Gophers will be playing in the NCAA Tournament as a #3 seed.

Now that all of the other conference tournament results are in, let's take a stab at predicting the brackets the NCAA Selection Committee will unveil tomorrow afternoon.

The field of 16 breaks down like this:

1 Seeds
Minnesota State (#1 Overall)
North Dakota
Boston University
Miami

2 Seeds
Denver
Minnesota-Duluth
Michigan Tech
Nebraska-Omaha

3 Seeds
Harvard
Minnesota
Boston College
St. Cloud State

4 Seeds
Yale
Quinnipiac
Providence
RIT

The first step of the Bracketology process is to place host teams in their own regionals.

North Dakota is placed in the Fargo regional as the only host team that made the tournament.

Next, starting with the #1 overall seed (Mankato), #1 seeds are placed in the regional closest to them - Mankato is placed in the South Bend regional, Boston University is placed in the Manchester regional, and Miami is placed in Providence (BU is about as close to Manchester as Providence, and this makes things easier down the line).

Now we place the remaining teams in their regionals based on ideal seed bands (1 vs 16 and 8 vs 9, 2 vs 15 and 7 vs 10, 3 vs 14 and 6 vs 11, 4 vs 13 and 5 vs 12):

When we do that, we get the following:

South Bend
Mankato vs RIT
Nebraska-Omaha vs Harvard

Fargo
North Dakota vs Providence
Michigan Tech vs Minnesota

Manchester
BU vs Quinnipiac
Minnesota-Duluth vs BC

Providence
Miami vs Yale
Denver vs St. Cloud State

Now, we're looking to eliminate first-round intra-conference matchups.  We have only one in Providence with Denver playing St. Cloud.  Because the NCHC has three #2 seeds, the only way to avoid this matchup is to swap Minnesota and St. Cloud State.  Now we're left with:

South Bend
Mankato vs RIT
Nebraska-Omaha vs Harvard

Fargo
North Dakota vs Providence
Michigan Tech vs St. Cloud State

Manchester
BU vs Quinnipiac
Minnesota-Duluth vs BC

Providence
Miami vs Yale
Denver vs Minnesota

Now, what can we do to maximize attendance at these sites?  One thing we can do is swap Minnesota and Harvard, to bring the Crimson out East and the Gophers back West.

South Bend
Mankato vs RIT
Nebraska-Omaha vs Minnesota

Fargo
North Dakota vs Providence
Michigan Tech vs St. Cloud State

Manchester
BU vs Quinnipiac
Minnesota-Duluth vs BC

Providence
Miami vs Yale
Denver vs Harvard

You'd like to get Providence in Providence, so let's swap Yale, Quinnipiac and Providence to try and preserve bracket integrity as best we can.  So now we've got:

South Bend
Mankato vs RIT
Nebraska-Omaha vs Minnesota

Fargo
North Dakota vs Quinnipiac
Michigan Tech vs St. Cloud State

Manchester
BU vs Yale
Minnesota-Duluth vs BC

Providence
Miami vs Providence
Denver vs Harvard

Okay.  All four regionals look pretty good from an attendance perspective here.  South Bend is probably the weakest of the four, but Minnesota usually travels pretty well and Mankato isn't that far either.  We'd love to get Miami to South Bend, and the committee in the past has said that "a flight is a flight" and sent a higher-ranked team farther in favor of a bus ride for a lower team.  However, the committee also likes to keep the 1 vs 16 matchup intact, and moving Mankato to Providence would screw up our whole "Providence in Providence" idea.

So, the question is: does the committee care more about preserving the 1/16 match up, or about attendance?  If they care about attendance more I could see Mankato going to Providence, but in the past they've been sure to protect that 1/16 matchup so I can't see them changing that now.  Here's my final bracket:

South Bend
Mankato vs RIT
Nebraska-Omaha vs Minnesota

Fargo
North Dakota vs Quinnipiac
Michigan Tech vs St. Cloud State

Manchester
BU vs Yale
Minnesota-Duluth vs BC

Providence
Miami vs Providence
Denver vs Harvard

Gopher Hockey PairWise Update - What I Believe: Friday Night Edition

Here is what I believe when it comes to the Gophers and the NCAA Tournament:

Minnesota can only miss the tournament if the following occurs-

• Michigan beats Minnesota in the B1G, AND
• Colgate beats Harvard in the ECAC, AND
• UMass-Lowell beats BU in HE, AND
• Miami beats SCSU in the NCHC, AND
• Michigan Tech beats Mankato in the WCHA, AND
• North Dakota beats Denver in the NCHC 3rd Place Game

Any other result in any other game and the Gophers are in the NCAA Tournament.  If each outcome is a 50/50 probability and we take a Minnesota loss as an assumption, there is a 3.125% chance that this scenario will occur.

A win tomorrow night against Michigan would likely mean a #9 or #10 overall seed, whereas a loss will probably net Minnesota a #13 or #14 seed.

NCAA Tournament What If? Gophers Win Today, Lose Tomorrow

The Gophers can still make the NCAA Tournament without winning the B1G Conference Playoff this weekend, but it's going to take some help.

According to the scenarios I've run, there are five other things around the country this weekend that can severely harm Minnesota's chances of making the big dance.  They are:

1. Boston University not winning the Hockey East postseason tournament
2. Quinnipiac not winning the ECAC postseason tournament
3. St. Cloud State winning at least one game in the NCHC tournament
4. Bowling Green winning at least one game in the WCHA tournament
5. Minnesota State or Michigan Tech not winning the WCHA tournament

Assuming Minnesota takes care of business against Ohio State today, they've still got a decent shot of making the tourney even if they lose to Michigan or MSU in Saturday's championship game.  Based on the scenario-building I've done, it looks to me like a win tonight will get the Gophers into the NCAA tournament so long as no more than two of the above bad results take place.

As a Gopher fan, these are the only results you need to pay attention to this weekend (other than the Gophers, of course).

We'll go into why each of these results harm the Gophers in more detail below:

Who to Root For: A Conference Tournament Viewing Guide for Gopher Fans

The Gophers won the B1G regular season title on Saturday night, but that doesn't mean they're a lock to make the NCAA tournament.

Teams that make the Big Dance are determined by the PairWise Rankings, a mathematical formula that simulates the actions the NCAA Selection Committee takes to decide which teams are in and which teams are out.

16 teams make the NCAA Tournament.  Currently, Minnesota ranks 13th in the PWR, but next weekend's results could dramatically shape the Gophers' chances of punching their tickets to the Tourney.  The only way they're guaranteed to make the NCAA Tournament is by winning the B1G Conference tourney and securing the conference's auto-bid, but each other conference has an auto-bid as well.  Any lower-ranked teams that win their conference tournament effectively take a spot away from the bottom of the bubble, drastically limiting the Gophers' scenarios to make the Tournament if they are not the B1G tournament champion.

After looking at many scenarios and crunching some numbers, here's who you should be rooting for in each conference's championship tournament this upcoming weekend:

Atlantic Hockey - (1) Robert Morris vs. (4) Mercyhurst, (2) Canisius vs. (3) RIT.  It honestly doesn't matter who wins this one.  The conference is only going to get one team into the tournament, whichever team wins their playoff this weekend.  The best team in AH is Robert Morris, a team that made the tourney last year and lost to Minnesota in the first round.  I'd like to see them win as they have the best chance out of any team in AH to give a #1 seed a run.

B1G - (3) Michigan vs. (6) Wisconsin, (4) Penn State vs. (5) Ohio State, (1) Minnesota vs. 4/5 Winner, (2) Michigan State vs 3/6 Winner.  We want Minnesota to win, obviously.  If not, then it doesn't really matter who wins, although the Gophers' chances are better if they lose in the championship game than in the semifinal.

ECAC - (1) Quinnipiac vs. (4) Harvard, (2) St. Lawrence vs. (3) Colgate.  For the Gophers to make it, we need as many teams "already in" the tournament to win their conference championships as possible.  In the ECAC, the highest ranked team is Quinnipiac at T10th.  Harvard and Colgate are still alive at 15th and 16th respectively, as is St. Lawrence at T20th.  We'd like to see Quinnipiac win this one.  If not Q, then Harvard would be the next best bet, but things start to get tight for Minnesota if more than one or two non-tourney teams win their conferences, since if the Gophers don't have the B1G auto-bid that means that another B1G team is already in the tournament, already pushing the bubble down to 14 (B1G team and AH team taking away #15 and #16 spot).

Hockey East - (1) Boston University vs. (4) New Hampshire, (2) UMass-Lowell vs. (3) Vermont.  This is another conference tourney where only one team is guaranteed to make the NCAAs - BU.  Lowell currently sits T16th and outside the bubble, while Vermont is 19th right now.  We want Boston University to take the tournament here.

NCHC - (1) North Dakota vs. (4) St. Cloud State, (2) Miami vs. (3) Denver.  Here's one where we really only have one team to root against, and it's not the team you're thinking.  North Dakota, Miami and Denver are safely in the NCAA Tournament already.  The NCHC has a third place game in their Frozen Faceoff tournament, which means that the losing teams of the first round game have a chance to win another game to bolster their RPI scores.  We want St. Cloud State to lose as many games as possible here.  St. Cloud's RPI is a bit higher than the Gophers' RPI is right now, despite the fact that they are only one game over .500 at 18-17-1.  Just one St. Cloud win on the weekend would be enough to boost their RPI ahead of Minnesota's and put them safely in the tournament.  Two losses would send them below Minnesota and onto the bubble.  So, Gopher fans should root for Miami, Denver or (shudder) North Dakota to win the NCHC, but more importantly root against St. Cloud in all of their games.

WCHA - (1) Minnesota State vs. (4) Ferris State, (2) Michigan Tech vs. (3) Bowling Green.  This one is easy.  There are two teams remaining in the WCHA that are already "in" - Minnesota State and Michigan Tech.  Gopher fans should root for Mankato and Michigan Tech to win their games and square off in the Final Five (?) title game.

Gopher Hockey: Two Options to Make the NCAA Tournament

With the season winding down and the Gophers faltering left and right, the team has played itself into a position where there are only two paths left to making the NCAA Tournament.

1) Sweep Penn State next weekend and win the semifinal game of the B1G Tournament, but lose in the championship game

2) Win the B1G championship

Both options are still attainable, although this hockey team has shown it can lose to anyone.

The Gophers need 3 more wins to remain on the safe side of the NCAA Tournament bubble and really can't afford more than one loss if they want to grab an at-large bid into the tourney.  This means the only loss they can stomach is the one in the B1G Championship game.

Assuming they sweep Penn State, the Gophers will be at worst the #2 seed heading into the conference tournament, which would net them a first-round bye.  A win in the semifinal game and a loss in the final should be enough to get the Gophers something like the #13 or #14 seed and squeak into the tourney.

Of course, winning the B1G postseason tournament would give Minnesota the conference auto-bid, which is the fail-safe for the team assuming they do not start putting together a run of wins.

It is possible that the team could get into the tournament in another way - splitting next weekend and winning twice in the B1G tournament would put them 3-2 the rest of the way, which just might be enough to eke out one of the last at-large bids to the tournament.  This scenario would probably require so many other things to go Minnesota's way that it's not that realistic.

The Gophers face Penn State next weekend for the last series of the regular season.  Minnesota sits at 33 points in the conference, tied with Michigan and one point behind Michigan State.  The Spartans and Wolverines play a home-and-home series against each other next weekend.  These two series (MN/PSU and UM/MSU) will decide the B1G regular season title as well as the seedings for the post-season tournament.

Gopher Hockey NCAA Tournament Magic Number: 5ish

The Pairwise rankings are a tough nut to crack, but the latest simulations from Jim Dahl over at College Hockey Ranked seem to say that the Gophers are pretty safe to make the NCAA tournament field if they can win five more games before the NCAA field is announced.

Gophers Wear Down Nittany Lions, Win 2-1 in Happy Valley

Isackson, Kloos, Wilcox lead Minnesota over Penn State on the road

Happy Valley, PA - For the first time in a long time this season, Minnesota is back on top.

The Gophers (17-9-3 Overall, 8-2-3 B1G) continued their hot streak, winning their fifth game in a row (unbeaten in their last seven) to rise to the top of the B1G conference standings. The 2-1 victory over the Penn State Nittany Lions (15-10-4, 7-5-1) was just Minnesota's fourth road win of the season - the Gophers are now 4-5-2 outside the Twin Cities, and 4-7-2 away from Mariucci Arena on the year.

Gopher Hockey: A Rant

I'm sorry the blog hasn't been that active recently.  I do most of my writing for GopherPuckLive and the game articles are usually outlet enough for my thoughts on the team.

Recent events have come to a head, though, and my thoughts on this team have become a little more colorful than a postgame article on a respected Gopher hockey website allow.

The Gophers are coming off a sweep at the hands of the unranked Michigan Wolverines, putting them 3-7-1 in their last 11 games.  The team now sits at 10-7-1 overall and is only ahead of the historically bad Wisconsin in the B1G conference.

Minnesota has lost to such powerhouses as the US Under 18 Team, Merrimack and Northeastern, rarely looking the part of a national title contender.

The team that lost in the NCAA Championship game last season and returned all of its key players has seen major statistical and performance regressions from nearly all of its stars:

• First Team All-American Mike Reilly continues to dazzle with the puck, but this season he's also been inept without it.  Reilly may have a foot out the door to the NHL already, because the junior defenseman and Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year last season seems to have forgotten how to play his position, looking lazy and lackadasical in his own defensive zone.  More often than not recently, when there's been a goal as a result of a missed assignment or a sloppy backcheck, number five is on the ice.
• Second Team All-American (honestly not sure how he wasn't a 1st teamer) and Big Ten Player of the Year last year Adam Wilcox has been human this season, when we've come to expect him to be greater than.  Wilcox was finally, blissfully pulled in favor of Nick Lehr in Minnesota's pathetic 7-5 loss Saturday at Michigan after giving up five goals on 16 shots through just 5 minutes of the second period.  Of course I don't think all of the goals have been Wilcox's fault by any means (see above bullet point), but this team has come to expect greatness from its goaltender, and he's been just good.
• The high-end sophomores have not been good enough.  Second-year forwards Justin Kloos, Taylor Cammarata and Hudson Fasching have had flashes of solid play but overall have simply not taken a step forward.  Kloos is about on pace with his freshman campaign, but Cammarata and Fasching have mustered a combined six goals in 35 games this season.  These guys are counted on to carry the mail offensively for this team, and need to step their games up for this team to succeed.  Another sophomore not called on to score as much is Vinni Lettieri - I like his game and what he brings to the table, but he too has only scored three times in 17 games.  Granted he's playing a more checking / energy role, but it's another low goal total for a player with flashes of offense to his game.
• The senior forwards haven't fared much better on the scoring front, with the exception of Kyle Rau and Travis Boyd.  Boyd missed some time with an injury but has been productive this year, netting seven goals in just 11 games, and Rau has scored seven in his 18 games played.  Other than them, though, the other senior forwards (Sam Warning, Seth Ambroz and Christian Isackson) have scored seven goals between them despite playing in every game this season.  Isackson has never been a reliable scoring option for the Gophers, but Warning and Ambroz each scored 14 goals last season and this team NEEDS scoring depth in order to win.
• Credit where it's due, though: Connor Reilly has been a very pleasant surprise.  He's now scored 10 goals this season to lead the team, and has been perhaps the only Gopher to "step up" his game this season.  As mentioned above Rau and Boyd have been good on both sides of the puck.  Defensemen Ben Marshall, Jake Bischoff, Michael Brodzinski and Ryan Collins have had to be good to fill the big void left by the injured Brady Skjei and the have been.  Having Skjei back and at full health for the remainder of the season can only bode well for this team that has had to withstand more than its fair share of injuries.

The season isn't over.  This team still has the pieces to make a deep run into the postseason, and if everyone plays like they are able to they have a chance to win it all this year.  But they need to start playing well first, and that means that the guys they count on to be their big players have to start playing like it.  It would be a shame if this team sputtered out before the NCAA Tournament because they were reading their own press clippings all summer long.

We'll see if they turn it around.  I'll be watching every time they take the ice, for better or worse.